On July 29, 2025, as the USS Gerald R. Ford conducted joint exercises in the Mediterranean off the coast of Naples, Italy, NATO officials confirmed that all European member states are on track to collectively reach the long-sought 2% of GDP defense spending benchmark by the end of the year. The milestone, seen as a critical reinforcement of the alliance’s credibility, comes at a time of mounting security challenges across Europe, the Middle East, and beyond.
A Symbolic Backdrop
The sight of a U.S. F-16 Hornet stationed on the flight deck of America’s most advanced aircraft carrier underscored the significance of NATO’s growing military commitments. The exercises near Italy involved U.S., Italian, French, and Spanish naval and air units, showcasing interoperability and readiness. NATO officials described the drills as both a demonstration of deterrence and a signal of renewed transatlantic unity.
“This is not just symbolic—it’s historic,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said. “For the first time, Europe as a whole will meet the 2% defense investment pledge. That sends a powerful message to adversaries and reassures our citizens that we are prepared to defend every inch of NATO territory.”
Years in the Making
The 2% target was first agreed at the NATO Wales Summit in 2014, following Russia’s annexation of Crimea. For years, however, most European allies lagged behind, drawing criticism from Washington, particularly during the Trump administration, which accused Europe of free-riding on U.S. security guarantees.
The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drastically altered the equation. Countries like Germany, once reluctant to increase defense budgets, announced sweeping military spending packages. Eastern flank states such as Poland and the Baltic nations surged ahead, often surpassing the 2% mark. By 2025, the cumulative effect of these measures—combined with new commitments from southern and western European states—pushed the bloc as a whole across the threshold.
Driving Factors
Analysts cite several factors behind the acceleration:
- Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine: The conflict continues to be the single largest driver of European rearmament.
- Middle East instability: Escalations in Lebanon, Yemen, and the Red Sea have threatened Europe’s trade and energy security.
- China’s global posture: Concerns over Beijing’s expanding influence in the Mediterranean and Africa have pressured NATO to build resilience.
- Technological modernization: Investments in cyber defense, drones, and advanced air defense systems require significant capital.
“The 2% target is no longer seen as a ceiling, but as a baseline,” said Claudia Major, a defense analyst in Berlin. “Europe is rearming not only to reassure the U.S. of its commitment, but also to prepare for the possibility of acting more autonomously in the future.”
U.S.–Europe Balance
Washington has welcomed the shift. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking aboard the Gerald R. Ford, praised the European allies’ progress, noting that a stronger Europe lightens the burden on American forces while reinforcing deterrence against adversaries.
Still, questions remain about how spending is distributed. Some analysts warn that a focus on national procurement risks duplicating efforts rather than fostering joint capabilities. NATO leaders have pushed for more pooled projects, such as joint fighter jet training centers, drone defense networks, and shared naval infrastructure.
Public Opinion and Political Challenges
While most governments have rallied around higher defense budgets, domestic debates continue. In Italy, Spain, and Greece, political parties warn that defense spending could squeeze social programs. In Germany and France, opposition voices have demanded more transparency in how new funds are allocated.
Nevertheless, public opinion across much of Europe has shifted significantly since 2022, with majorities in favor of higher defense spending to counter Russian aggression.
The Road Ahead
Looking forward, NATO officials stress that hitting the 2% mark is only the beginning. The alliance is considering raising its target to 2.5% by 2030, reflecting the scale of challenges in Europe and beyond.
For now, however, the 2025 milestone will be celebrated as a turning point. “It took war in Europe to awaken us, but NATO is now stronger, more united, and better equipped,” Stoltenberg said. “This year, we will meet our pledge—and our adversaries will take note.”
