Brussels appears to have quietly pressed pause on several sensitive files concerning Hungary, a move sources suggest is directly linked to the upcoming parliamentary elections in April. This unofficial moratorium by the European Commission aims to avoid any perception of interference in the Hungarian political landscape, particularly as Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Fidesz-KDNP coalition faces a significant challenge from the opposition Tisza Party, led by Péter Magyar. The strategy, while unstated, reflects a cautious approach to prevent inadvertently fueling Orbán’s often anti-Brussels rhetoric during a critical election period.
One EU diplomat, speaking anonymously, characterized the situation as “frozen front lines” where “nothing is happening” regarding Hungarian dossiers. The Commission is reportedly monitoring opinion polls closely, opting to wait until after the April vote before proceeding with various matters. This includes an assessment of a controversial Hungarian law passed last March that effectively banned participation in Budapest Pride, threatening fines and surveillance. Despite the head of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, having previously declared herself an ally of the LGBTQ+ community, the legal evaluation of this legislation remains incomplete, with no legal steps announced. City mayor Gergely Karácsony, whose support allowed Budapest Pride to proceed despite the ban, described the Commission’s inaction as a clear political decision, questioning the lack of political will to challenge what he views as a violation of European Community law. In contrast, the Commission did not hesitate to initiate an infringement procedure against Slovakia last November over a constitutional amendment defining only two sexes.
Another significant file currently in limbo involves Hungary’s request to regroup approximately €4 billion from the EU’s Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) under the Hungarian Development Bank. This maneuver could allow Hungary to meet spending criteria and avoid losing funds, but the Commission is reportedly hesitant to greenlight the decision before the April elections. This comes as the EU has already frozen a substantial portion of its funds for Hungary due to ongoing rule-of-law concerns, resulting in Budapest forfeiting over €1 billion as deadlines passed. The European Parliament, in a resolution last November, even called for further financial sanctions and the suspension of Hungary’s voting rights, reflecting growing frustration within the bloc.
Beyond legislative and financial matters, the Commission’s reticence also extends to an internal inquiry concerning Olivér Várhelyi, the current Health Commissioner and Hungary’s EU ambassador during a period when an alleged spy ring, operational from 2012 to 2018, was reportedly gathering intelligence on sensitive files related to Budapest. Várhelyi has denied any wrongdoing, and while the findings of this inquiry were initially expected before Christmas, they too have been delayed, potentially until after the election. Some Commission officials privately suggest that a probe leading to Várhelyi’s exit could create more complications, as his portfolio is relatively small and he generally keeps a low profile. A replacement, they argue, might be more challenging to manage.
This strategic pause by Brussels, however, is not without its critics. MEP Daniel Freund voiced concerns that the EU is making a “strategic mistake” by refraining from action, arguing that there is no justification for suspending EU treaties due to an election campaign. Freund, a German politician and Green party member, believes the EU should directly confront what he terms the “lies of the Hungarian government” rather than adopting a cautious stance that could backfire, drawing parallels to the principle of non-interference during the Brexit vote. The potential for Orbán to weaponize any EU intervention for his campaign is acknowledged, with even some “Hungary-hawks” within the European People’s Party reportedly advising against action to avoid playing into his narrative.
Brussels has a significant stake in the outcome of the Hungarian elections. Viktor Orbán, who has held power since 2010, has consistently opposed key European legislative initiatives, including financial support for Ukraine, sanctions, and common migration rules. His frequent use of vetoes has created considerable internal tension within the EU, particularly in areas requiring unanimity, such as foreign policy. His opponent, Péter Magyar, a former ally now seen as a more pro-European conservative, could potentially mend the fractured relationship between Budapest and Brussels, possibly unlocking frozen EU funds, much like the return of Donald Tusk in Poland. While many files are on hold, one area where cooperation continues is defense spending, with the EU allocating €16 billion to Budapest under the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) last May, signaling that security concerns can still transcend political differences.
