Spanish intelligence agencies reportedly issued multiple warnings to the government regarding a potential surge of migrants into the North African exclave of Ceuta, with some alerts arriving mere hours before tens of thousands of people crossed the border. These intelligence reports, gathered from various military and civilian sources, indicated an escalating risk in the days leading up to what became the largest migration crisis in the city’s history. These warnings included the possibility of Morocco making a “gesture of magnanimity” at the border, potentially linked to King Mohammed VI’s Throne Day celebrations.
Initial intelligence assessments were followed by more concrete observations. Reports surfaced of individuals swimming into Ceuta from Fnideq, known as Castillejos in Spanish, and buses transporting people from different regions of Morocco towards the border area. Over a period of approximately ten days, nearly a thousand people had already managed to swim into Ceuta. Intelligence officials reportedly interpreted these preliminary crossings as a deliberate test by Moroccan authorities, conveying this assessment to the Spanish government. Despite these escalating indicators, the scale of the subsequent influx still proved overwhelming.
The eventual crossings saw an estimated 60,000 to 75,000 migrants enter Ceuta. The Civil Guard and National Police units stationed at the Tarajal border crossing found themselves unable to stem the tide, with their efforts largely redirected towards assisting the injured. Sources within these security forces voiced criticism regarding Madrid’s delayed deployment of military personnel. They highlighted that military units in both Ceuta and Melilla were on standby and could have been mobilized rapidly through a political decision and an order from operations command, bypassing lengthy preparatory meetings. This suggests a potential disconnect between intelligence assessments and the operational response.
Observations from officers on the ground further complicate the narrative. They reported that Moroccan gendarmerie personnel appeared to stand by “with their arms folded” as migrants attempted to cross, both along the breakwater and at the main access road, where others climbed fences and roofs. This contrasts sharply with the Spanish Interior Ministry’s public statement hours after the event, which characterized cooperation with Morocco as “exemplary, loyal and permanent.” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, while describing the mass entry as a “violation of Spain’s territorial integrity,” also maintained that Moroccan authorities had cooperated “swiftly and consistently” from the outset.
Civil Guard sources drew a distinction between this recent event and the situation in May 2021, when Morocco had relaxed border controls in response to Spain’s decision to admit Polisario Front leader Brahim Ghali. This time, they noted, the number of people swimming into Ceuta had been increasing for weeks, partly attributed to a Spanish Supreme Court ruling that prohibited the immediate return of migrants reaching Spanish territory by swimming. Prime Minister Sánchez alluded to this ruling, suggesting that people-smuggling networks had exploited it to encourage thousands to attempt the crossing. However, despite these repeated intelligence warnings and the visible increase in arrivals, the Ministry of the Interior did not order significant reinforcements, including the army, until late on Thursday, after the crisis was already well underway. The initial “reinforcement” mentioned by Sánchez amounted to roughly thirty additional officers and a boat that subsequently broke down.
