Brussels is currently engaged in discussions with its G7 allies regarding the future of the price cap on Russian oil, a dialogue that precedes a potential new round of sanctions against Moscow. This comes as the European Commission considers a significant shift in its approach, specifically a full prohibition on maritime services. A presentation outlining these proposals, initially slated for Friday, has been tentatively rescheduled for early next week, indicating the complexity and sensitivity of the deliberations.
Among the more assertive measures being debated is a comprehensive ban on maritime services. This proposal, championed by Finland and Sweden, would prevent EU-based companies from offering any services—including insurance, shipping, or port access—to vessels transporting Russian crude oil or refined petroleum products. Such a move would represent a substantial escalation from the current framework, which permits these services only for tankers adhering to the G7 price cap, a mechanism in place since December 2022. The cap itself saw a recent adjustment to $44.10 per barrel, an attempt to align with market dynamics and intensify economic pressure on Russia. While the EU, the UK, Canada, and Japan follow this dynamic price cap, the United States maintains its original $60 per barrel threshold.
Should the European Union proceed with this blanket ban, the practical application of the existing price cap within EU jurisdiction would effectively cease. Companies would be barred from servicing all Russian vessels indiscriminately, irrespective of whether their cargo was sold above or below the established price limit. Proponents of this sweeping measure, particularly Finland and Sweden, argue that it offers several strategic advantages. They contend it would significantly elevate material costs for Russia’s oil sector, simplify implementation for EU actors, and crucially, help combat the widespread use of falsified documents by Moscow to circumvent current sanctions.
However, the prospect of dismantling the price cap could introduce complications for certain member states, especially if other G7 nations do not fully endorse the initiative. Any decision on this matter would necessitate unanimous agreement from all 27 capitals. The coordination between Brussels and Washington has been evident, particularly after the US Treasury sanctioned Russia’s two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, in October. These US sanctions, amplified by the dollar’s dominance in global trade, have already compelled Moscow to offer its Urals crude at a steeper discount. A potential EU ban on maritime services could deliver another substantial blow to Russia’s energy revenues.
Despite the potential impact, the Trump administration has shown reluctance to alter the existing price cap. Last year, the US stood as the sole G7 member that declined to adopt a dynamic mechanism for the cap, preferring to maintain a fixed level. This divergence highlights a broader geopolitical context, including ongoing, albeit slow-moving, peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, facilitated by Washington. Recent trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi did result in a prisoner exchange involving 314 individuals and a decision by the US and Russia to re-establish high-level military dialogue, dormant for over four years. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has indicated that further punitive measures are “under consideration” in Washington, contingent on the progression of these peace discussions.
Beyond maritime services, the forthcoming EU sanctions package is expected to broaden the blacklist of “shadow fleet” vessels and entities suspected of aiding Moscow in acquiring restricted goods, with a particular focus on China. Reports suggest the package might also include a ban on Russian imports of iridium, rhodium, platinum, and copper. Brussels aims to finalize this 20th package of sanctions by February 24th, coinciding with the four-year mark of the conflict. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President António Costa are scheduled to visit Ukraine on that date, underscoring the EU’s unwavering support. A Commission spokesperson confirmed the intense work underway on the 20th package, stating that adoption would occur once all necessary conditions are met.
