The UK economy defied expectations with a robust performance in February, expanding by 0.5%, far surpassing economist forecasts of 0.1%. The growth, driven largely by strength in the services sector and manufacturing rebound, comes just as British exporters face mounting pressure from new US tariffs.
According to data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), exports to the US surged by £500 million, as UK businesses accelerated shipments to get ahead of a wave of trade restrictions. Tariffs on UK steel and aluminium took effect on March 12, followed by a blanket 10% duty on most UK goods entering the American market.
“UK exporters clearly moved quickly to get ahead of the curve,” said William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC). He noted a 23% jump in transatlantic goods exports over the past three months—now at their highest since late 2022. 
The sectors fuelling February’s economic momentum included telecoms, IT services, and car dealerships, according to the ONS. Growth was also supported by stronger output in electronics, pharmaceuticals, and car manufacturing, which had previously struggled.
ONS Director Liz McKeown described February as a “broad-based rebound,” pointing to positive contributions across both services and production sectors. Meanwhile, January’s economic data was revised upwards—from a minor contraction to flat growth.
Despite the positive surprise, economists cautioned that the boost could be temporary. The full impact of the new tariffs, combined with domestic tax increases and rising energy and utility costs, is expected to weigh on the economy in the coming months.
“This unexpected growth won’t last,” warned Ruth Gregory, Deputy Chief UK Economist. “The broader trend shows sluggish performance, with growth in only four of the last nine months.”
Chancellor Rachel Reeves welcomed the figures as a “promising step” but remained cautious, acknowledging the need for continued effort to ensure long-term economic stability. “We’re not being complacent. We must act decisively to boost growth, secure jobs, and raise living standards,” she said.
The Chancellor also confirmed ongoing talks with US officials to seek relief from the tariff measures. “We’re doing everything possible to protect British industry and workers,” Reeves told reporters.
Some UK businesses, however, are already reconsidering their future. Mitchell Barnes, who runs a 3D printing automotive parts firm in Warwickshire, said it’s not US tariffs but rising domestic costs that are impacting his growth plans. Changes in National Insurance and minimum wage regulations have forced him to scale back hiring targets, and he’s now eyeing expansion in the US instead.
“We need to innovate and adapt,” Barnes said. “If we’re going to thrive, we have to take control of our future—wherever that leads us.”
While the recent GDP numbers suggest that fears of an imminent recession may be premature, the long-term outlook remains uncertain. The more stable three-month average to February shows a 0.6% increase, signaling modest momentum—but one that faces headwinds from global trade dynamics and domestic fiscal policies.
